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Market teaches lesson everyday


Showing some semblance of stability after the big crash, markets were seen consolidating in a tight range of 800 points last week. Logging modest negative returns of over 1.1 per cent, the Sensex and the Nifty closed at 10,809 and 3,210. Cushioning the selling from FIIs was steady buying from domestic institutional investors. Fears of rising interest rates affecting corporate profitability, growing trade deficit and high crude oil prices continue to cloud the larger picture dampening the sentiment.

Delay in hike of fuel prices and a slowdown of reforms due to pressure from the Left Front continue to be stumbling blocks. The next big triggers for the direction of the markets in the intermediate term are the progress of monsoon and Q1 results. With global factors affecting the markets more than at any other time, punters would do well to be aware of global commodity and stock trends.

Chartists predict a wide trading band of 10,300-11,600 for the Sensex and for the Nifty, a band of 3,080-3,350. Strong supports for the Sensex and the Nifty are 10,300 and 3,040. Below 10,000 and 3,000 levels, indices may see a steep fall to 8,200 and 2,500. Fresh longs for a short term can be considered if the indices trade above 11,000 and 3,250 with improvement in volumes. To buy when others are desperately selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward. Market teaches its players a lesson every day. The key to success is to learn the lesson fast and never repeat the same mistake.

F&O Segment

With fears of settlement problems behind and lowering of margins, the F&O segment witnessed modest improvement in volumes on Friday in the new account. However, with the recent volatility breaking the backs of many retail participants, abysmally low roll-over of positions were seen. Nifty futures were seen trading at a discount of 30 points to spot value. Sentiment indicators like implied volatility, put or call ratio and open interest present mixed picture. The volatile trend will continue and a strong comeback rally is not ruled out. Adopt the "strangle strategy" for the Nifty by buying out of the money put option of 3,150 strike and out of the money call option of 3,250 strike to take advantage of volatility.

Tips for punters on buy side are RIL, TCS, GAIL, Dabur, Tata Steel, IDFC, HCL Tech, Essar Oil, GNFC and BILT. Banking and FMCG counters are set for a pullback rally. Defensive buying is likely in technology and pharma counters. Power, fertilisers and capital goods stocks may witness modest renewed buying interest. Heightened activity in oil and auto counters on expectations of petro goods price hike is indicated. Side counters like NLC, KTK Bank and others may see news driven activity.

Satta Gupchup

Select mid-cap and small-cap counters are attracting renewed interest from market players. After the recent meltdown, many good stocks are available at good valuations. Amtek Auto, Lotte India, Hinduja TMT, Shyam Tele, Shreyas Shipping, Shiv Vani, Mahindra Ugine, Automotive Axles, Usha Martin and Ramsarup Inds. are in the buy list of savvy market players. Low-priced Datamatics, Soma Textiles, TVS Electronics, NRC, Kothari Sugars, NCL Inds and Setco Automotive are some of the active fancied ones. Before taking a position in a stock, check out the price, breadth, activity, time, volume and how the general market stands.

Many mid-cap auto component, capital goods and technology counters are now available at reasonable valuations. Bottom fishing can be attempted in stocks with good earnings and growth visibility. Suggested good picks are ANG Exports, Cummins India, Genus Overseas, S.E. Asia Marine and Shakti Pumps.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed here, and the recommendations made, are those of the author. They do not reflect those of this newspaper. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.



‘Basic education first, then reservation’


If the commercialisation of education continues at the same rate at which it is taking place presently, the day will come when the next generation of the middle class will find it difficult to obtain admission into any school in the city," said Dr Syam Pophale, secretary of the Forum Against Commercialisation of Education or Face.

The Face had organised a convention in South Mumbai on Sunday and is to send a list of its demands to the state government which it is hoping will be met.At the meeting which was attended by educationalists from across the state, a major topic of discussion was the rising cost of education in the city and the non-availability of proper education in non-urban areas of the state.

Among the demands made in the list to be given to the state government, Face has asked that the state’s expenditure on education should be increased, hiring of teachers on contract should be stopped and also that it should be ensured that only persons who have no commercial interests should be allowed to start educational institutions. Dr Pophale said, "In primary schools, the fees that are being asked for admission are ridiculously high. And unless, some prompt action is taken by the government it will spiral out of control."

An activist from Panvel, Ali Shaikh said, "Despite being right next to Mumbai there are places in Panvel itself where there is only one school for about 10 villages in the area. What must be realised is that none of the talk about reservations and anything matters unless drastic action is taken to improve the quality of basic education we provide to the children."

Others also spoke of the rising expenditure of higher education. Mr Kumar Satham from Mumbai said, "Presently higher education is steadily going out of reach for citizens of the middle class and with the rampant commercialisation of educational institutions it can only get worse."



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