Two-way: Bookies see congress swing, BJP win
Though the mood among voters remains downbeat, the satta bazar is buzzing with activity.

Like every election, bookies say, millions of rupees will change hands in this market with the fluctuating fortunes of political parties. This year the festival of Janmashtami, which coincides with election fever, has fuelled the betting market as never before. Janmashtami is a hot season for Gujaratis, who love to win some, lose some.

It is a big chain with the bookies at one end and small gamblers at the other. And the stakes are high, sometimes in crores. A source in Mumbai confirmed that over Rs 300 crores have already been staked, with Rs 150 crores in Mumbai alone. Delhi, Mumbai, Indore and Jaipur are the capitals of the satta market. Pune, Bhopal, Chandigarh, Ahmedabad, Rajkot and other cities are connected with the main centres with the help of cellular phones. In Ahmedabad, bookies operate out of their houses.

This year, a new betting game has entered the arena. It is called Sure 30. This has a flat rate of Rs 1.50. According to the rules, one has to give a list of 30 candidate who will win from their respective constituencies. And if the list matches the results, one gets Rs 1.50 over every Re I put on stake.

As per the rates available on Tuesday, the rate for the BJP getting about 150 seats is 6 paise (that is if om puts Rs 100 at stake, one gets Rs 106). For the BJP getting 175 seats, the rate is Rs 143 for Rs 100, and for 200 seats it is a whopping Rs 400 for every Rs 100. For the Congress getting 100 seats, the rate is Rs 112 for Rs 100, for 125 seats the rate is Rs 138 and for the Congress winning 150 seats is Rs 375.

As on the all-India level, the satta bazaar is in love with the BJP in Gujarat too. As more opinion polls predict a swing in favour of the BJP, the rate of BJP winning 16 seats and Congress winning 8 is 38 paise.

Bookies said the market cuts through all layers of society. They said people from the labour class gamble with small amounts like Rs 100 or Rs 200 while the very rich gamble crores. On condition of anonymity, they said the mood is shifting towards the Congress and the rate for the Congress has dipped (good news for Congress means less money for winning), after an opinion poll said the Congress may get more seats than what earlier polls predicted.

According to the latest figures available on Wednesday afternoon, Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s chance of winning from Bellary, earlier rated at 37 paise over a rupee, has come down to 20 paise; Mr Vajpayee’s rate in Lucknow is 6 paise per rupee while Mr Advani’s rate of winning in Gandhinagar is just one paise. A bookie said betting will go on even after polling day. And since the results will be out only in October, the market is expected to swell more than ever.

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Compiled from Local News Media